US ELECTION RESULTS BAD NEWS FOR PLANET EARTH

The US Congress elections at the start of November are thought by many analysts to represent a weakening of President Obama's hand when it comes to the US tackling climate change.

Until now, Obama has expressed significant interest in finding ways to mitigate climate change and reduce the USA's net emissions. Both renewable energy and rainforest conservation have received greater political encouragement and financial support since he came to office. President Obama has also pledged support to the UN's REDD+ programme (for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) which is aimed at tropical forest countries like Brazil, Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia and Peru.

With the Republican Party taking over the House of Representatives and gaining strength within the Senate, getting finance and future commitments to initiatives like these will become much tougher for the Democrats. Closely allied to the oil industry, some Republicans are sceptical about the reality of climate change, a factor reflected in the Congress election results in some of the US coal-industry dependent states. More calls are now expected to expand offshore drilling as well as reduce oil spill liability on oil companies.

The election results are also likely to increase the threat to the USA's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) which, earlier this year, 47% of Senators wanted to strip of its power to regulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With the balance now likely to be weighted against the EPA, Obama's power to legislate for mandatory GHG emissions for industry is severely diminished.

There are global implications, too. The US delegates to the UN Climate Summit in Cancun, Mexico - which starts later this month - are likely to have less to offer the world in terms of emissions reductions and cash for forests. Representing one of the two most powerful economies at the Summit, any diminishment in the US delegates' ability to make positive offers and lead the way will also impact on what other nations bring to the carbon negotiating table. It would, for instance, leave the path clear for China to take on increasing responsibility in mitigating climate change. On the other hand, the Asian economic power may simply take advantage of an opportunity to make fewer commitments.

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